Prop Firm Challenge Simulator

What the model actually does

Each simulated path starts at the account size you choose. Every trade is a win or a loss. A win adds your average win. A loss subtracts your average loss. The chance of a win is the win rate on the slider. Trades are grouped into days, using the trades-per-day number, until the path passes, fails, or reaches the day cap.

A path passes when closed profit reaches the profit target. A path fails when the balance touches the drawdown floor, or when the loss inside one day reaches the daily loss limit. If neither happens before the day cap, the path is still open. The pass rate is the share of paths that pass. The median days figure counts only the paths that pass. Paths that fail or run out of days do not pull that median down to zero.

The random stream is seeded. The same inputs and the same seed produce the same rates. Simulate draws the next seed so you can see how much the rate moves. Moving a slider updates the model with the current seed and does not send an analytics event. Only Simulate records a run, and that event carries the tool name, account size, drawdown type, and number of paths. It does not carry a price, a code, or a link.

Static floor and end-of-day trail

Static drawdown keeps the floor where it started: account size minus the max drawdown. Profit does not lift that line. End-of-day trailing looks at the balance after the day's trades. If that close is a new high, the floor steps up by the same distance, and it never steps back down. The trail does not move in the middle of the day. A loss that happens before the close is judged against the floor from the previous close.

This tool does not model an intraday trail, open equity, or a trail that locks after the target. Those rules need a tick path, not a closed-trade sample. Use the trailing drawdown simulator when you want to step through a specific sequence of results. Use this page when you want a rate across many sequences drawn from one win rate.

How to read the chart

The chart shows one sample path, the first path in the batch, not the average of every path. The balance line uses the site color. The crimson line is the drawdown floor. The emerald line is the profit target and does not move. If the floor is end-of-day trailing, the crimson line can rise after a higher close and then stay there. If the floor is static, the crimson line is flat. A path that fails stops on that day, so the line may be shorter than the day cap.

Charts are drawn in the browser after the page text. The explanation above is in the page HTML, so the description is available without running the model. The chart box keeps its height while it loads, so the page does not jump when the canvas appears. Leaving the page removes the chart. Coming back creates one new canvas.

What this cannot tell you

A higher pass rate in this box is not evidence that a firm pays more, that traders at that firm pass more often, or that one plan is the best. The model ignores commissions, slippage, news locks, consistency rules, minimum days, and the difference between balance and equity. It also assumes every win is the same size and every loss is the same size. Real trades are not. If you do not know your own win rate, the percentage you type is a guess, and the pass rate is a guess about that guess.

Treat a tight drawdown, a tight daily loss, and a large target as a harder model, not as a verdict on a company. Then read the firm's current rules before you pay. Pair the rate with a cost estimate if you want to see what a failed attempt might cost you. The cost calculator uses fees you enter. This page never looks those fees up.

Step through a drawdown · Estimate a cost you enter · Trailing drawdown glossary · Rules guide